Expect the unexpected at NHL trade deadline

What’s the first rule of the NHL trade deadline?

Expect the unexpected. Several deals involving players not mentioned in countless trade deadline stories have already occurred.

The second rule: Don’t rely on predictions expressed on all of those trade boards.

On that note, I hereby introduce the NHL Trade Deadline Non-Board, a unique structure that includes players, teams, positions (i.e. goalies) and salary cap space. So here’s what to watch in the final week before the March 3 deadline.

Arizona Coyotes cap space

Coyotes ownership and management have two missions as the team earns minimal revenue playing out of a small arena at Arizona State University for an uncertain number of years: Spend as little money as possible but still reach the salary cap floor. And, oh yeah, still make it look like the team is trying to build a Stanley Cup contender.

That means the perennially rebuilding Coyotes, who have oodles of cap space, could will be willing to be a third-party broker – as often as possible – and take on contracts of high-paid players on long-term injured reserve. Hence, the Coyotes can add to their cap total but avoid paying the acquired players because most, if not all, of the salaries will be covered by insurance. Also, the Coyotes can obtain draft picks – maybe even some in early rounds – and avoid paying prospects for a few seasons. (See section further down on Arizona’s draft picks.)

The Coyotes recently acquired Shea Weber’s contract from the Vegas Golden Knights and they will be in position to take on more LTIR contracts as San Jose Sharks defencemen Erik Karlsson, possibly Chicago Blackhawks winger Patrick Kane and Arizona’s own Jacob Chychrun come into play at the deadline. The Edmonton Oilers have three players on LTIR – goaltender Mike Smith, Oscar Klefbom and Ryan Murray – whose contracts total about $10 million.

By shipping out their contracts, Oilers general manager Ken Holland could cover most of what’s left of Karlsson’s $11.5-million cap hit this season and enhance his team’s Cup hopes. By moving Kefblom’s contract alone, Holland could cover most of the balance on Chychrun’s $4.6-million cap hit for this season. Then Holland would have to find $4.6-million for each of the next two seasons – not an impossible task. Or Holland could instead opt to take Arizona rearguard Shayne Gostisbehere and what’s left of his expiring $4.5-million contract.

Buffalo Sabres cap space

Like the Coyotes, the Sabres have an abundance of cap space that GM Kevyn Adams might be willing to share for the right price. The Sabres actually are becoming a playoff contender – and might even earn a wild-card berth this season. But, with several young stars emerging, Adams might also be highly inclined to take on draft picks or aging players on expiring contracts in a three-way deal. See captain Kyle Okposo and goaltender Craig Anderson, who was sporting a decent .915 save percentage and 2.85 goals-against average Saturday and could be a reasonable backup option for a playoff-bound team.

Remember the rule about expecting the unexpected.

Other teams’ cap space and third-party brokers

Toronto GM Kyle Dubas created a trend of sorts as he creatively used Minnesota’s cap space to help him  acquire Ryan O’Reilly from St. Louis, along with Noel Acciari. Dubas convinced St. Louis to retain 50 per cent of O’Reilly’s salary and got Minnesota to cover the other 50 per cent.

Dubas set a precedent for other GMs looking to acquire high-priced stars. The strategy will probably only be effective in acquiring pending UFAs or players with only a year or two remaining on their deals on expiring deals or contracts, because the paying teams will not want a long-term cap hit.

Minnesota also served as a third-party broker as it assumed 50 per cent of defenceman Dmitry Orlov’s salary as the Washington Capitals dealt him to the Boston Bruins.

Teams have served as third-party brokers in previous seasons, but there are likely to be more cap-space sellers at this year’s deadline because of the big-name, and high-salaried, players available. And, some teams have large amounts of available cap space.

As Frank Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff has noted, teams will want to use it or lose it. (Available cap space expires at the end of the regular season.)

The Wild still has some money that it might want to spare, while the Detroit Red Wings do, too. But the Wings, in contention for a wild-card berth, might want to use the money to acquire players that can help them get above the playoff bar.

The Anaheim Ducks and Ottawa Senators are also well-positioned to serve as third-party brokers for the purpose of accumulating draft picks and prospects.

With or without third-party brokers, cap space is likely to be pivotal in deals. Many teams have already displayed an inclination to retain it. Dubas scored another coup Monday as he convinced the Chicago Blackhawks to retain 50 per cent of defenceman Jake McCabe’s salary this season and next as the Leafs acquired him along with forward Sam Lafferty.

The rebuilding Blackhawks gained by acquiring first and second-round draft picks in 2025 and 2026.

More clubs are likely to retain salary.

Goalies

As you might have heard (countless times), teams usually refrain from trading goalies during the season because such deals tend to be difficult and potentially disruptive. But the March 3 trade deadline could be an exception for one obvious reason: Several goalies on contending teams are battling health woes. A number of netminders are also due to become unrestricted free agents and teams will not want to lose them for nothing in return.

Get the lowdown on how, and which, teams and goalie could be impacted by the deadline.

Anaheim defencemen

Four Anaheim rearguards – John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitri Kulikov and Nathan Beaulieu – are due to become UFAs. Chances are, at least one of them will get dealt so that GM Verbeek produce some kind of return.

Klingberg and Shattenkirk could bolster power play units and Kulikov is a defensive defenceman with a modest minus-12 mark on a bad Anaheim team. Analytics lovers often dismiss plus-minus as being an unreliable stat, but Kulikov has been on the ice for many more goals for than against during his 14-year NHL career. Defencemen are often in minus territory but he has been minus-eight or worse in only three regular seasons – and he has never been worse than minus-four during seven playoff campaigns.

Ducks GM Pat Verbeek could easily retain salary to make his aging defencemen more palatable to buyers – and still act as a third-party broker.

Arizona draft picks

The Coyotes have 32 draft picks – most acquired from other teams – over the next three years. That is almost four years’ worth of picks in three.

Arizona has nine picks alone this year and – due to the club’s low standing – a reasonable shot at winning the draft lottery and the chance to choose first pick overall. Accordingly, GM Bill Armstrong is not likely to move his top pick this year outright. But he is in position to swing a conditional deal whereby Arizona would protect the pick against the lottery, meaning that the Coyotes would keep the pick if it is in the top 12 and give the acquiring team its first-round pick in 2024, or later, instead.

Such a move would enable the Coyotes to get nominal No. 1 pick Connor Bedard if they win the lottery – or another potential franchise player with a slightly lower pick, depending on how the lottery balls fall. Since this year’s draft class is richer in talent than usual, the Coyotes are in a good situation if GM Bill Armstrong wants to get creative.

To maximize the return, Armstrong could leave his first-round pick unprotected, giving the acquiring club a shot at landing Bedard who may be less of a draw in an Arizona market that has been ambivalent about hockey and may relate more to an American star.

If they deal picks this year, the Coyotes could just get future picks in return so that they fulfill their goal of spending as few real dollars as possible.

Carey Price’s contract and Montreal’s draft picks

With star goaltender Carey Price on LTIR and unlikely to play again, Montreal GM Kent Hughes could elect to move his contract, which still has three years to run. Price has a no-movement clause but it seems unlikely that he would try to enforce it – especially if he wants to help the Canadiens become a Stanley Cup contender.

The obvious destination for Price’s contract is Arizona, because they Coyotes could apply his $10.5-million salary to their cap in each of the next three years and continue to avoid spending real dollars. Hughes could be in position to land the highly coveted Chychrun from the Coyotes – now or in the summer.

Armstrong and Hughes also have the luxury of getting creative with draft picks. Like the Coyotes GM, Hughes has assembled a plethora of picks over the next three years, and the Habs have a reasonably good chance to win the 2023 draft lottery.

The Habs have 11 picks in this year’s draft and two first-round picks this year and in 2025. Hughes has them well-positioned to swap top picks with Arizona – or another team – while including additional assets.

The bottom line?

Montreal and Arizona have done little thus far as the deadline approaches, but they could become more prominent by Friday.