Sooner
rather than later.
That seems
like a crazy idea – given that Markstrom is the NHL club’s starting goaltender
– but it makes sense in both the short and long terms.
Why? Let us
count the reasons.
1. Markstrom is not the team’s
goaltender of the future.
Current
backup Thatcher Demko, 22, fits that role for now, and rookie Michael DiPietro,
20, is also a strong candidate. NHL goaltenders typically take longer to
develop than skaters, and Demko is entering his fifth pro season. He is at the
point where he needs more playing time as the Canucks prepare to become Stanley
Cup contenders in the next two or three years.
Meanwhile, Markstrom,
30, is in the final year of his contract and slated to become an unrestricted
free agent next summer. If the Canucks re-sign him, they could delay the
development of both Demko and DiPietro.
DiPietro is
ticketed to start his career in the minors but, based on an impressive body of
work as a junior, he could be an exception to the general rule about
goaltenders needing more time to develop. DiPietro has won a Memorial Cup and
an OHL title, backstopped Canada’s 2019 world junior team to a silver medal –
following a 2-1 overtime loss to Finland in the gold-medal game – and served as
the Canadian senior men’s team third-string goaltender at the worlds. He also appeared
in one game for the Canucks on an emergency-recall basis last season. He
appears likely to start his full-time pro career in the ECHL – but may not be there long.
2. The Canucks can afford to gamble on
goaltending.
When it
comes to making the playoffs this season, the Canucks will likely be a bubble
team – with or without Markstrom as their starter. By platooning Demko and a
goaltender acquired from another club, they could ease some salary-cap
pressures, still battle for a playoff spot (thanks to their bolstered offensive
and defensive ranks) and further the effort to become a Stanley Cup contender.
Last
season, two teams – the New York Islanders and Carolina Hurricanes – benefited
from platoon systems as they both qualified for the playoffs. The Islanders
turned their fortunes around from the previous season as they finished second in
the Metropolitan Division after missing the playoffs in 2017-18. The Hurricanes
achieved even more as they reached the Eastern Conference finals. Carolina’s
platoon system paid off in the post-season as Curtis McElhinney replaced the
injured Petr Mrazek and helped the Hurricanes advance.
Now that
teams have reduced their rosters for the start of the regular season, several
goaltenders will be available in the relatively near future. Tampa Bay sent Louis
Domingue to the minors after signing McElhinney as a free agent in the
off-season. Domingue, who went 21-5-0 last season and is on an expiring
contract, would be an ideal short-term fit for Vancouver. He is one of several
other low-cost goaltenders with extensive NHL or minor-league experience who could
be obtained for little in return. Others include Darcy Kuemper, who became
Arizona’s starter last season following an injury to Antti Raanta and kept the
Coyotes in the playoff hunt. But Raanta is healthy and Arizona has claimed Eric
Comrie, 24, on waivers from the Winnipeg Jets. With Raanta healthy again and on
a long-term contract, Kuemper appears destined to depart at some point this
season. Comrie, once a highly touted junior star, spent six years in the Winnipeg
organization and fared reasonably well during that time. Like DiPietro, he
played some pro games while still of junior age, albeit in the minors, and
could now be ready for permanent NHL employment. Comrie could also become
available again, because he would have to clear waivers if the Coyotes want to
send him down and keep Kuemper.
3. Markstrom’s numbers make him
expendable.
In Markstrom’s case, the off-ice
numbers – in a contract – are probably more detrimental than his on-ice stats. By moving him
and his current $3.6-million salary elsewhere, Vancouver can ease salary-cap
pressures that have been exacerbated by the $3-million recapture penalty
resulting from former Canuck Roberto Luongo’s retirement. The Canucks have
limited cap space, even after shipping veteran winger Sven Baertschi to the
minors, and could face more pressure – and another likely player move – when
winger Antoine Roussel returns from a knee injury suffered last season.
Markstrom’s on-ice numbers – in the
form of wins, losses and save percentage, among other stats – do not justify
keeping him, either. He was perceived as having a breakout season in 2018-19
while posting a .921 save percentage in his final 40 games. Goaltending coach
Ian Clark has stated that Markstrom crossed a proverbial bridge to become a better
puck stopper after improving on the .897 save percentage posted in his first 20
contests.
Markstrom ranked highly in 2018-19 advanced goaltender analytics, and
some observers have argued that he stopped tougher shots than he did in
2017-18. But his 23 wins were three fewer than the career-best 26 that he
posted a season earlier. Also, his overall
.912 save percentage in 2018-19 matched the figure that he recorded in 2017-18,
and his goals-against average increased slightly to 2.77 in 2018-19 from 2.71
in the previous season. The latter stats are not considered overly reliable by
goaltending experts, who believe they are influenced by a team’s overall quality.
The same goes for wins.
But general managers do look at
those figures when deciding whether to re-sign a goalie. Markstrom has never
posted a winning record in the NHL with either the Canucks or his previous
team, the Florida Panthers – and he has only three career shutouts. Granted, he
played on some bad teams in both places; however, he rarely, if ever, stole
wins. He has become good at keeping his team in tight games, something every club
expects its top goaltender to do, but he has yet to demonstrate that he is an
elite talent.
And, the Canucks will need an elite
netminder before they can return to the Stanley Cup finals.
4. No matter how well he plays, Markstrom
is likely to receive less playing time this season.
In each of
the past two seasons, Markstrom appeared in 60 games, but he is likely to get
fewer starts in 2019-21 as the Canucks ramp up Demko’s development. If Demko
wins the starting role, a reasonable possibility if he excels early, Markstrom could
become a high-priced backup as general manager Jim Benning grapples with
minimal cap space. The biggest risk with Demko is his lack of NHL action. He
has only nine career games under his skates, but his successes in college and
the minors suggest that he can shine in the world’s top league.
Coach Travis Green could opt to
platoon Markstrom and Demko, but that scenario would not resolve salary-cap
issues – and may not significantly affect Vancouver’s playoff hopes. A better
solution would be to platoon Demko with a low-cost goaltender acquired from
another team.
5. Both the Canucks organization and
Markstrom will be better off if he moves on.
Many NHL
starting goaltenders earn more than Markstrom does now. Based on his starter
status and experience, he will likely want a significant raise – i.e. upwards
of $5 million to $6 million per season. Undoubtedly, he will also want some
security in the form of a long-term deal and a no-trade or limited no-movement
clause.
But the
Canucks are unlikely to grant any of those requests due to his age and track
record, the team’s goaltending depth and the salary cap crunch. Even if Markstrom
receives a costly contract spanning just three years, that would cause more
headaches for Benning when it comes time to re-sign the likes of Demko, who is in
the first year of a two-year extension, and young stars Elias Pettersson, Brock
Boeser and Quinn Hughes, among others. If Markstrom signs for more than three
years, his contract could become an albatross and prevent Benning from
acquiring key additions when the Canucks, theoretically, are in Cup contention.
Undoubtedly, Benning will try to prevent Markstrom’s contract from burdening
the team the way Loui Eriksson’s six-year $36-million deal has. Furthermore,
the Canucks need to get something in return for their top goaltender after
investing in his development for the past five-plus seasons. Markstrom is the
only piece left from the Luongo trade, and the club needs to salvage some form
of a return from that horrendous deal.
The Luongo
trade did not happen on Benning’s watch, but it behooves the GM to get a decent
return for Markstrom to offset the damage caused by the former Canuck’s move to
Florida. In case you have not heard (a million times) by now, the
salary-cap-recapture penalty from Luongo’s contract has constrained Vancouver’s
cap.
Meanwhile, Markstrom has a chance to
earn a better deal by playing elsewhere. His market value will be enhanced if
he is traded during the season and shines with another club. If he plays fewer
games with the Canucks and is not moved before he becomes a UFA, his market value
and the demand for his services will decrease.
Several veteran goaltenders –
including Stanley Cup winners Braden Holtby of Washington, Jimmy Howard of
Detroit, Matt Murray of Pittsburgh and Corey Crawford of Chicago – are slated
to become UFAs in the summer of 2020. Robin Lehner, who won the William M. Jennings trophy, and was a finalist for the Vezina with the Islanders in 2019-20 and has joined Chicago on a one-year deal, will
also be a UFA again if he does not re-sign with the Blackhawks before July 1. Several
other younger goalies facing free agency may also be worth acquiring. The
expansion draft for the new Seattle team could also factor into Markstrom’s future,
because the Canucks will probably only manage to protect one goaltender.
In other words, Markstrom is not
guaranteed of receiving the money or term he wants.
Markstrom also wants to win a
Stanley Cup before he retires. By signing what may be the final contract of his
career with the Canucks, he could hamper his chances of kissing the Cup.
6. Markstrom’s departure from Vancouver
appears inevitable.
For many,
if not all, of the above reasons, this will probably be Markstrom’s final
season in Vancouver. Under different circumstances (i.e. a shortage of goaltender prospects and ample cap space), it would make sense to re-sign him. He is a character guy, has displayed some increased skill at times and gives the team confidence on many nights. But the Canucks will be reluctant to re-sign him to anything
beyond a two-year deal, and he will likely want to move on. The fact that Benning has not re-signed him yet indicates that negotiations have stalled – or they
never started.
Contrary to critics' views, Benning is reasonably
smart. He will not let Markstrom go for nothing.
Now, it is
just a matter of time before he trades him.
