It's time for the Vancouver Canucks to gamble on goaltending -- and Jacob Markstrom might be wise to wager on his future.
By waiting a season to cash in on unrestricted free agency.
Canucks general manager Jim Benning would be unwise to re-sign Markstrom, 30, to a lucrative long-term contract given Vancouver's current and upcoming salary-cap pressures, the growth of Thatcher Demko's game and prospect Michael DiPietro's anticipated rise to the NHL in the near future. Also, after next season, Benning will have to find enough money for new long-term deals for budding superstars Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes, who will likely both command upwards of $10 million per season, and give raises to Demko and other core players. Depending on its term and value, Markstrom's next contract could become an albatross if he struggles with the pressure of living up to a large pay hike, fails to build on his current level, or is displaced as a starter.
But with roughly $14.3 million in available cap space for 2020-21, Benning has more to worry about now than later. As of today, if Markstrom and winger Tyler Toffoli re-sign, most of those cap dollars will go to them, because they both stand to earn $5 million to $7 million per season.
Benning can gamble on goaltending by anointing Demko as the 1A starter and acquiring a talented 1B -- or a veteran traditional backup -- and letting Markstrom leave now. Another option: Benning could sign Markstrom to a one-year deal in the $5-million range and find cap room by other means.
Goalies galore
Those ideas might sound unrealistic. First of all, Markstrom, a UFA for the first time in his career, would have to accept a one-year deal, possibly for less money than he could get elsewhere next season. But either scenario is plausible when one looks at the NHL's goaltending landscape -- and considers the case of Robin Lehner.
Benning will have no shortage of goaltending options to choose from. More than 30 goaltenders are slated to become unrestricted free agents on October 9. Two other netminders with Stanley Cups to their credit -- Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray -- will also be available via trade.
Waiting worked for Lehner
Fleury became expendable after Vegas signed Lehner to a five-year, $25-million contract extension, and Murray was effectively shown the door after the Penguins gave Tristan Jarry a new three-year contract worth $3.5 million per season. The Canucks are unlikely to pay the $7.5 million due to Fleury in the final year of his contract, but the point is that he is available, and Benning could be interested if the Golden Knights retain some of his salary.
Another talented netminder, Toronto's Frederik Andersen, should also be available via trade, if recent reports are any indication. Either of Arizona's Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta, who both pose cap hits of more than $4 million, will also be up for grabs as the Coyotes shed costs.
What does this goaltender glut mean for Markstrom?
He might be wise to wait a season before trying to cash in on free agency. Lehner did just that and reaped large rewards. He chose to sign a one-year, $5-million deal with Chicago in 2020-21 and -- after being traded to Vegas at the deadline and shining in the playoffs -- parlayed his decision into a long-term contract with a seemingly perennial Stanley Cup contender.
If Markstrom stays with the Canucks for one more season, his services could be in greater demand because there will be fewer free-agent goaltenders available in 2021-22, improving his hopes of signing a richer deal when teams have a better sense of the post-pandemic future. He might also be able to enjoy more playoff success after competing in the post-season for the first time in his NHL career in 2019-20.
If he signs a long-term deal for megabucks now, Markstrom will likely postpone -- or, possibly, eliminate -- his chances of winning a Stanley Cup. Realistically, rebuilding teams like Detroit, Buffalo and New Jersey, are most likely to give him the money and term that he covets now. But they will probably not contend for another few seasons.
Markstrom has already gone through a lengthy rebuild with the now surging Canucks. Does he really want to go through another one? As anyone who has spent a little time around him knows, he views takes every loss extremely hard.
But, ultimately, he may have to decide whether money and term mean more than the Stanley Cup.
Solution might already be on roster
Benning's goaltending solution might already be on Vancouver's roster.
Louis Domingue, the team's No. 3 netminder, represents an affordable alternative to Markstrom -- if the GM is willing to gamble in a different way.
Last season was largely a write-off for Domingue, who joined the Canucks at the February trade deadline from New Jersey due to Markstrom's knee injury. Starting the season with Tampa Bay, Domingue was a member of three NHL organizations and also toiled in the minors. He saw action in just one regular-season game with Vancouver and served as the backup in the playoffs after Markstrom was sidelined with an undisclosed injury.
But Domingue is just one season removed from a 21-5-0 record with a Lightning squad that played much looser than the Stanley Cup edition. A new one-year deal for Domingue could give Benning more salary-cap leeway elsewhere. If a Demko-Domingue tandem does not work out, the GM could then dip into the free-agent pool -- because some affordable goaltenders will still be available -- or find a short-term fix via trade.
Domingue, also set to become a UFA for the first time in his career, might not like the idea of signing a one-year deal with a club that has exceptional goaltending talent in the pipeline. But, with so many UFAs available, he is not likely to get much more than that anywhere else.
A strong 2020-21 campaign could lead to a better contract in 2021-22. By giving him a two-year deal, Benning could solve the issue of which goaltender to expose to the Seattle Kraken in the expansion draft.
Plenty of other options
If Benning chooses to let both Markstrom and Domingue skate away, he can pick from a number of other options near the top of the free-agent pool.
