What’s the first rule of the NHL trade deadline?
Expect the
unexpected. Several deals involving players not mentioned in countless trade
deadline stories have already occurred.
The second
rule: Don’t rely on predictions expressed on all of those trade boards.
On that
note, I hereby introduce the NHL Trade Deadline Non-Board, a unique structure
that includes players, teams, positions (i.e. goalies) and salary cap space. So
here’s what to watch in the final week before the March 3 deadline.
Arizona
Coyotes cap space
Coyotes
ownership and management have two missions as the team earns minimal revenue
playing out of a small arena at Arizona State University for an uncertain
number of years: Spend as little money as possible but still reach the salary
cap floor. And, oh yeah, still make it look like the team is trying to build a
Stanley Cup contender.
That means
the perennially rebuilding Coyotes, who have oodles of cap space, could will be
willing to be a third-party broker – as often as possible – and take on
contracts of high-paid players on long-term injured reserve. Hence, the Coyotes
can add to their cap total but avoid paying the acquired players because most,
if not all, of the salaries will be covered by insurance. Also, the Coyotes can
obtain draft picks – maybe even some in early rounds – and avoid paying prospects
for a few seasons. (See section further down on Arizona’s draft picks.)
The Coyotes
recently acquired Shea Weber’s contract from the Vegas Golden Knights and they
will be in position to take on more LTIR contracts as San Jose Sharks defencemen
Erik Karlsson, possibly Chicago Blackhawks winger Patrick Kane and Arizona’s
own Jacob Chychrun come into play at the deadline. The Edmonton Oilers have three
players on LTIR – goaltender Mike Smith, Oscar Klefbom and Ryan Murray – whose
contracts total about $10 million.
By shipping
out their contracts, Oilers general manager Ken Holland could cover most of
what’s left of Karlsson’s $11.5-million cap hit this season and enhance his
team’s Cup hopes. By moving Kefblom’s contract alone, Holland could cover most
of the balance on Chychrun’s $4.6-million cap hit for this season. Then Holland
would have to find $4.6-million for each of the next two seasons – not an impossible
task. Or Holland could instead opt to take Arizona rearguard Shayne
Gostisbehere and what’s left of his expiring $4.5-million contract.
Buffalo
Sabres cap space
Like the
Coyotes, the Sabres have an abundance of cap space that GM Kevyn Adams might be
willing to share for the right price. The Sabres actually are becoming a playoff
contender – and might even earn a wild-card berth this season. But, with several
young stars emerging, Adams might also be highly inclined to take on draft picks
or aging players on expiring contracts in a three-way deal. See captain Kyle
Okposo and goaltender Craig Anderson, who was sporting a decent .915 save
percentage and 2.85 goals-against average Saturday and could be a reasonable backup
option for a playoff-bound team.
Remember
the rule about expecting the unexpected.
Other
teams’ cap space and third-party brokers
Toronto GM
Kyle Dubas created a trend of sorts as he creatively used Minnesota’s cap space
to help him acquire Ryan O’Reilly from
St. Louis, along with Noel Acciari. Dubas convinced St. Louis to retain 50 per
cent of O’Reilly’s salary and got Minnesota to cover the other 50 per cent.
Dubas set a
precedent for other GMs looking to acquire high-priced stars. The strategy will
probably only be effective in acquiring pending UFAs or players with only a
year or two remaining on their deals on expiring deals or contracts, because the
paying teams will not want a long-term cap hit.
Minnesota
also served as a third-party broker as it assumed 50 per cent of defenceman
Dmitry Orlov’s salary as the Washington Capitals dealt him to the Boston Bruins.
Teams have
served as third-party brokers in previous seasons, but there are likely to be
more cap-space sellers at this year’s deadline because of the big-name, and high-salaried,
players available. And, some teams have large amounts of available cap space.
As Frank
Seravalli of the Daily Faceoff has noted, teams will want to use it or lose it. (Available cap space expires at the end of the regular season.)
The Wild
still has some money that it might want to spare, while the Detroit Red Wings
do, too. But the Wings, in contention for a wild-card berth, might want to use
the money to acquire players that can help them get above the playoff bar.
The Anaheim
Ducks and Ottawa Senators are also well-positioned to serve as third-party
brokers for the purpose of accumulating draft picks and prospects.
With or without
third-party brokers, cap space is likely to be pivotal in deals. Many teams
have already displayed an inclination to retain it. Dubas scored another coup
Monday as he convinced the Chicago Blackhawks to retain 50 per cent of
defenceman Jake McCabe’s salary this season and next as the Leafs acquired him
along with forward Sam Lafferty.
The
rebuilding Blackhawks gained by acquiring first and second-round draft picks in
2025 and 2026.
More clubs are
likely to retain salary.
Goalies
As you
might have heard (countless times), teams usually refrain from trading goalies
during the season because such deals tend to be difficult and potentially disruptive.
But the March 3 trade deadline could be an exception for one obvious reason:
Several goalies on contending teams are battling health woes. A number of
netminders are also due to become unrestricted free agents and teams will not
want to lose them for nothing in return.
Get the lowdown on how, and which, teams
and goalie could be impacted by the deadline.
Anaheim defencemen
Four
Anaheim rearguards – John Klingberg, Kevin Shattenkirk, Dmitri Kulikov and
Nathan Beaulieu – are due to become UFAs. Chances are, at least one of them
will get dealt so that GM Verbeek produce some kind of return.
Klingberg
and Shattenkirk could bolster power play units and Kulikov is a defensive
defenceman with a modest minus-12 mark on a bad Anaheim team. Analytics lovers
often dismiss plus-minus as being an unreliable stat, but Kulikov has been on
the ice for many more goals for than against during his 14-year NHL career.
Defencemen are often in minus territory but he has been minus-eight or worse in
only three regular seasons – and he has never been worse than minus-four during
seven playoff campaigns.
Ducks GM
Pat Verbeek could easily retain salary to make his aging defencemen more palatable
to buyers – and still act as a third-party broker.
Arizona
draft picks
The Coyotes
have 32 draft picks – most acquired from other teams – over the next three
years. That is almost four years’ worth of picks in three.
Arizona has
nine picks alone this year and – due to the club’s low standing – a reasonable
shot at winning the draft lottery and the chance to choose first pick overall. Accordingly,
GM Bill Armstrong is not likely to move his top pick this year outright. But he
is in position to swing a conditional deal whereby Arizona would protect the
pick against the lottery, meaning that the Coyotes would keep the pick if it is
in the top 12 and give the acquiring team its first-round pick in 2024, or
later, instead.
Such a move
would enable the Coyotes to get nominal No. 1 pick Connor Bedard if they win
the lottery – or another potential franchise player with a slightly lower pick,
depending on how the lottery balls fall. Since this year’s draft class is richer
in talent than usual, the Coyotes are in a good situation if GM Bill Armstrong wants
to get creative.
To maximize
the return, Armstrong could leave his first-round pick unprotected, giving the
acquiring club a shot at landing Bedard who may be less of a draw in an Arizona
market that has been ambivalent about hockey and may relate more to an American
star.
If they deal
picks this year, the Coyotes could just get future picks in return so that they
fulfill their goal of spending as few real dollars as possible.
Carey Price’s
contract and Montreal’s draft picks
With star
goaltender Carey Price on LTIR and unlikely to play again, Montreal GM Kent
Hughes could elect to move his contract, which still has three years to run.
Price has a no-movement clause but it seems unlikely that he would try to enforce
it – especially if he wants to help the Canadiens become a Stanley Cup
contender.
The obvious
destination for Price’s contract is Arizona, because they Coyotes could apply
his $10.5-million salary to their cap in each of the next three years and
continue to avoid spending real dollars. Hughes could be in position to land the
highly coveted Chychrun from the Coyotes – now or in the summer.
Armstrong
and Hughes also have the luxury of getting creative with draft picks. Like the
Coyotes GM, Hughes has assembled a plethora of picks over the next three years,
and the Habs have a reasonably good chance to win the 2023 draft lottery.
The Habs
have 11 picks in this year’s draft and two first-round picks this year and in
2025. Hughes has them well-positioned to swap top picks with Arizona – or
another team – while including additional assets.
The bottom
line?
Montreal
and Arizona have done little thus far as the deadline approaches, but they
could become more prominent by Friday.
