NHL predictions not to live by in 2016

Predictions about the Vancouver Canucks and other NHL matters that you can't take to the bank or live by as 2016 unfolds ...

1. Willie Desjardins will make the Canucks a better team.

Desjardins has been maligned for his extensive use of goaltender Ryan Miller, who is just coming back from an injury, line combinations and late-game coaching tactics. But the funny thing is that the Vancouver Canucks coach still has his team challenging for a playoff spot in a Pacific Division in which everybody but Los Angeles has struggled. Despite a plethora of injuries and some bad spells, Desjardins has figured out a way to muddle through at the worst of times -- despite a blatant lack of production from veterans. He has done so while deploying numerous young players who have made their NHL debuts.
Predecessors John Tortorella and Alain Vigneault, who were not inclined to trust young players, would have been hard-pressed to match his feats. Despite Tortorella's comment that veterans were "stale" as he exited Vancouver, the former Canucks coach refused to gamble on centre Bo Horvat and quickly shipped him back to junior. And, Torts is not doing much of anything with a youth-laden Columbus Blue Jackets lineup now.
Vigneault did not face as much pressure to go with youth while guiding the Canucks to a pair of President's trophies, and he received little recruiting help from former general manager Mike Gillis -- who struggled at drafting, to say the least. But it is doubtful that Vigneault would have had as much success as Desjardins.
Barring a total collapse, it says here, the Canucks will be in the playoff mix right until the end of the regular season. Years from now, players like Horvat, Sven Baertschi (who is starting to experience a career renaissance), Jake Virtanen, Alex Biega and Ben Hutton will be highly grateful for the help that they received from Desjardins in their early days in the NHL.
It remains to be seen how long Desjardins will stay in the league with them, because as the firing of his close friend Mike Johnston in Pittsburgh demonstrates, teams have little patience for bench bosses who get their first NHL head coaching jobs at the age of 57. (In case you have forgotten, both Johnston and Desjardins were 57 when hired.) But history now proves that Desjardins made an astute move by choosing the Canucks over the star-studded Penguins.
And, time will show that Desjardins, who has won a championship at every level at which he has coached, will make several more wily moves before leaving the Canucks bench.

2. Jake Virtanen will not be a liability.

Contrary to what many people might think, Canucks rookie Jake Virtanen is not a hot-head. Never mind the two penalties that he took on the same shift while playing for Canada against Finland at the world junior championships. While Virtanen admittedly let his emotions get the best of him on the second infraction, he is not likely to make the same mistake often.
Also, as demonstrated by his tying goal on Roberto Luongo in a comeback victory over the Florida Panthers, he can score at critical times. The marker, which came in the final two minutes of the third period, was definitely a goal scorer's goal.
Many have questioned why Virtanen has not been returned to junior, but the fact is that he can make an effective contribution while the Canucks continue to transition to a younger roster. Despite critics' complaints about a lack of production, he is producing a point roughly once every four games -- and several Vancouver vets would like to have that kind of efficiency.
Virtanen's numbers are not great, but still likely to improve by the end of the regular season as his confidence and playing time increase. Don't be surprised if you see him playing late in games more often.

3. The Canucks makeover is far from complete.

While Canucks GM Jim Benning has commenced his youth movement in earnest, his roster tinkering has barely begun. With veterans like Dan Hamhuis, Radim Vrbata and Chris Higgins (now in the minors) slated to become free agents and millions of dollars in salary cap space due to be cleared, Benning's next steps will involve the acquisition of more draft picks and high-priced veteran talent. The Canucks appear likely to be sellers at the trade deadline, while still attempting to secure a playoff spot.
First, the onus will be on unloading veterans as playoff rentals in exchange for draft picks, because other teams are not likely to surrender significant talent unless they want to -- and know they can -- sign Vancouver's castoffs.
In the offseason, Benning's primary aim will be to sign high-priced free agents, namely a stud defenceman and offensively gifted forward. Given the ongoing youth movement at centre, that offensive player is likely to be a winger. If Benning feels like gambling, he might also want to unload Miller, who has become increasingly prone to injury, at the deadline and free up $6 million that he is due to receive next season. Other clubs could be willing to pay a decent price for Miller as they seek post-season goaltending insurance. Otherwise, Benning will likely think hard about dealing him in the summer.

4. Steven Stamkos will be traded by the deadline.

It's getting too late in the game for Stamkos, who is due to become an unrestricted free agent, and the Tampa Bay Lightning braintrust to resolve their apparent rift. Stamkos is not even offering any platitudes about a desire to stay in Tampa if contract terms can be sorted out, and Lightning GM Steve Yzerman can not afford to let him walk for nothing.
The Lighnting captain's availability will cause seismic activity throughout the league, because some teams will be willing to pay a high price even if they can only get him for a Stanley Cup run. The ideal scenario would be for the Lightning to give Stamkos and his agent the chance to pursue a sign-and-trade deal.
Either way, Stamkos will likely get moved, and the trade will impact the Lightning and other teams beyond this season.
More than one team could be involved in a trade for him, and other clubs will likely make moves in response as they chase the Stanley Cup. With some blue-chip prospects available in this year's draft, high-end picks could also come into play and add to the deal's future impact on a number of teams.

5. The Toronto Maple Leafs will make several trades by the deadline.

See above re: Stamkos. The Leafs, who are looking to unload veterans and their big contracts, will likely be among the finalists in the bidding for Stamkos either at the trade deadline or through free agency. The Toronto native is an obvious franchise player to build around as coach Mike Babcock continues to implement a culture of winning and Leafs management aims to develop a younger, more talented roster.
By acquiring Stamkos before he becomes a free agent, the Leafs would have an exclusive period in which only they could negotiate a long-term contract with him. Also, the departure of veterans could help ensure that the Leafs finish low in the standings and get an early draft pick. Such a scenario might result in highly touted American prospect Auston Matthews or another world junior star heading to Toronto.
Babcock would not let the Leafs tank, but he wouldn't complain about a lottery pick.

Don't be surprised if Babcock joins Leafs

Youth and money will be key talking points as Mike Babcock decides this week whether to remain as coach of the Detroit Red Wings or leave for, not necessarily, greener pastures.
Two key questions will be: Does a team wooing Babcock have enough talent to win in the near future? And, can it meet his salary demands?
Here are some points to ponder on both fronts.

1. Money is not No. 1.

As Babcock has already indicated, the size of his salary will not be the driving force in his decision. Also, the Red Wings can afford to match any offer that he receives elsewhere. Ultimately, Babcock will stay or go based on a team's chance for a championship in the relatively near future and the situation which he feels is the best fit for himself and his family.

2. Detroit has a relatively young roster.

This point will draw criticism from analytics lovers, but the fact is that Detroit's average age is skewed upward by the likes of Henrik Zetterberg, 33, Pavel Datsyuk, 36, Niklas Kronwall, 34, Daniel Cleary, 35, Marek Zidlicky, 37, and Erik Cole, 35. It's wrong to say that the Red Wings are relying too heavily on older players, because only three players over 30 -- Zetterberg, Datsyuk and Kronwall -- played more than 60 games with the Wings this season. Cleary, a model workhorse, played only 17, while Zidlicky and Cole were acquired at the trade deadline, largely for experience and offence, and have uncertain futures. Zatterberg and Datsyuk led the Red Wings offensively with 66 and 65 points, respectively, but Tomas Tatar, 23, had the most goals (29) while Gustav Nyquist, 25, placed second in goal-scoring (27). Also, Tatar and Nyquist placed third and fourth, respectively, in total points.
And, in case anyone forgets, the Wings took the Tampa Bay Lightning -- one of the NHL's youngest and most talented teams -- to overtime in the seventh game of their first-round series before bowing out.
In other words, Detroit's supposedly aging roster should not be used as an excuse if or when Babcock decides to leave Detroit. When it comes to rebuilding, there's momentum in Motown.

3. Babcock can work with young players anywhere.

It's a misconception to think that Babcock will prefer to work with veteran players and limit young players' development and ice time. Nobody has said that he will, but coaches are often accused of preferring veterans over youngsters, and he will probably receive similar treatment from critics as more teams come into the hiring mix.
Babcock has a teaching background, and he has won a Canadian university title with a Lethbridge Pronghorns team that has done little since; a Memorial Cup with junior-aged Spokane Chiefs and a Stanley Cup by developing such future Red Wings stars as Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Kronwall and Jimmy Howard, among others, in their younger days.
The NHL is trending younger, Babcock knows that, and he can adapt.
Accordingly, Edmonton, where junior phenom Connor McDavid will play next season and Buffalo, where future American superstar Jack Eichel is destined to toil, would both be a good fit because they have several emerging young stars. But the Oilers are not considered to be in the running anymore for Babcock, while Buffalo is reportedly in hot pursuit. Toronto does not yet have enough obvious young talent for it to be a strong selling point, but the Leafs will likely make a big push at crunch time due to president Brendan Shanahan's close ties to him.

4. Toronto is a bad fit.

There are too many negatives in Toronto, including a daily media gong show, the absence of a general manager since Dave Nonis was fired, a dysfunctional veteran core and the aforementioned lack of young talent. It could be several years before the Leafs are ready to contend. But, as a rule, coaches love a challenge, and the Maple Leafs pose, arguably, the biggest one in the NHL.
Many coaches would opt not to coach in Toronto because of its hockey heritage and the constant public pressure to win that everyone faces on a daily basis. But Babcock is enough of a contrarian to accept an apparent no-win situation.
So don't be surprised if, after months of speculation, he winds up guiding the Leafs after all.

Babcock's days in Detroit appear numbered

Mike Babcock's marriage to the Detroit Red Wings appears all but over.
As reported Friday, Babcock has expressed a desire to consider other options, and the Red Wings are willing to let them talk to other teams before his contract expires in July. Babcock has stated that he could still return to Detroit, and the Wings would clearly love to have him back. But this situation makes two points clear: Babcock is not committed to Detroit, perhaps for a few weeks or maybe forever, and the Red Wings are willing to let him go.
Granted, relations would have been damaged if the Red Wings had not granted him permission to talk to other teams before his contract expires, because the club would then have an angry coach that it still wants to keep and might have to work with. Also, the Wings could miss out on some other qualified coaching candidates, such as former San Jose Sharks bench boss Todd McLellan, who is a former Detroit assistant.
In turn, the Wings could also miss out on signing some unrestricted free agents, who view a potential team's coach as a key factor in their decisions. Babcock would also miss out on jobs elsewhere, because teams like to have coaches in place for free agency and planning purposes, often before the draft in late June or the July 1 free agent frenzy.
Both the Red Wings and Babcock are being decent by keeping options open. The Red Wings, who have made two contract offers, could have simply let him go while continuing to pay him until July. Also, Babcock could have stated that he won't be back.
Babcock earned such treatment after helping the Wings reach the Stanley Cup finals in 2008, when they beat Pittsburgh, and 2009 when they lost to the Penguins. He has also helped the Red Wings qualify for the playoffs in 24 straight years. Babcock has gone 527-285-119 with 19 ties in 12 NHL seasons, sports an 82-62 record in the Stanley Cup playoffs, and led Canada to gold medals in the last two Olympics. He also led the Anaheim Ducks to the Stanley Cup finals in 2003.
Both sides are showing their professionalism and respectful relationship by keeping options open, but the Red Wings are also preparing for Babcock's departure. General manager Ken Holland is not allowing other teams to talk to Jeff Blashill, coach of the Wings' AHL affiliate in Grand Rapids, Mich. Holland has stated that Blashill would be a candidate for the Detroit position if Babcock leaves.
The Red Wings like to develop coaches and players from within, so Blashill would have a good chance of being promoted. It's hard to say why Babcock wants to consider other jobs. The Red Wings, owned by Mikke Ilitch, are a wealthy organizations that can afford to meet, or at least come close enough, to his salary target, and Babcock does not have a desire to be a GM. While he might have a strong desire to win now, the Red Wings have considerable young talent on their roster and in the pipeline to offset the eventual losses of superstars Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk. It won't be long before they are strong Cup contenders again.
Babcock might just want a change or a new challenge or the opportunity to work in Canada. You are not likely to find out the reasons unless Babcock moves to another team. His options are plentiful as Toronto, Buffalo, San Jose and Philadelphia have openings, while Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli has said he will reach out to him, although Todd Nelson is still the Oilers coach for now. The strong likelihood of Edmonton choosing Connor McDavid first overall could appeal strongly to Babcock when he decides where to go. Other teams without coaching vacancies, unusual suspects as now, might also make moves if they can get Babcock. For instance, Claude Julien's future in Boston is in question, and Los Angeles Kings coach Darryl Sutter appears to be dealing with a player mutiny after the 2013-14 Stanley Cup champions missed the playoffs.
All of these factors increase the likelihood of Babcock leaving Detroit.