NHL predictions not to live by in 2016

Predictions about the Vancouver Canucks and other NHL matters that you can't take to the bank or live by as 2016 unfolds ...

1. Willie Desjardins will make the Canucks a better team.

Desjardins has been maligned for his extensive use of goaltender Ryan Miller, who is just coming back from an injury, line combinations and late-game coaching tactics. But the funny thing is that the Vancouver Canucks coach still has his team challenging for a playoff spot in a Pacific Division in which everybody but Los Angeles has struggled. Despite a plethora of injuries and some bad spells, Desjardins has figured out a way to muddle through at the worst of times -- despite a blatant lack of production from veterans. He has done so while deploying numerous young players who have made their NHL debuts.
Predecessors John Tortorella and Alain Vigneault, who were not inclined to trust young players, would have been hard-pressed to match his feats. Despite Tortorella's comment that veterans were "stale" as he exited Vancouver, the former Canucks coach refused to gamble on centre Bo Horvat and quickly shipped him back to junior. And, Torts is not doing much of anything with a youth-laden Columbus Blue Jackets lineup now.
Vigneault did not face as much pressure to go with youth while guiding the Canucks to a pair of President's trophies, and he received little recruiting help from former general manager Mike Gillis -- who struggled at drafting, to say the least. But it is doubtful that Vigneault would have had as much success as Desjardins.
Barring a total collapse, it says here, the Canucks will be in the playoff mix right until the end of the regular season. Years from now, players like Horvat, Sven Baertschi (who is starting to experience a career renaissance), Jake Virtanen, Alex Biega and Ben Hutton will be highly grateful for the help that they received from Desjardins in their early days in the NHL.
It remains to be seen how long Desjardins will stay in the league with them, because as the firing of his close friend Mike Johnston in Pittsburgh demonstrates, teams have little patience for bench bosses who get their first NHL head coaching jobs at the age of 57. (In case you have forgotten, both Johnston and Desjardins were 57 when hired.) But history now proves that Desjardins made an astute move by choosing the Canucks over the star-studded Penguins.
And, time will show that Desjardins, who has won a championship at every level at which he has coached, will make several more wily moves before leaving the Canucks bench.

2. Jake Virtanen will not be a liability.

Contrary to what many people might think, Canucks rookie Jake Virtanen is not a hot-head. Never mind the two penalties that he took on the same shift while playing for Canada against Finland at the world junior championships. While Virtanen admittedly let his emotions get the best of him on the second infraction, he is not likely to make the same mistake often.
Also, as demonstrated by his tying goal on Roberto Luongo in a comeback victory over the Florida Panthers, he can score at critical times. The marker, which came in the final two minutes of the third period, was definitely a goal scorer's goal.
Many have questioned why Virtanen has not been returned to junior, but the fact is that he can make an effective contribution while the Canucks continue to transition to a younger roster. Despite critics' complaints about a lack of production, he is producing a point roughly once every four games -- and several Vancouver vets would like to have that kind of efficiency.
Virtanen's numbers are not great, but still likely to improve by the end of the regular season as his confidence and playing time increase. Don't be surprised if you see him playing late in games more often.

3. The Canucks makeover is far from complete.

While Canucks GM Jim Benning has commenced his youth movement in earnest, his roster tinkering has barely begun. With veterans like Dan Hamhuis, Radim Vrbata and Chris Higgins (now in the minors) slated to become free agents and millions of dollars in salary cap space due to be cleared, Benning's next steps will involve the acquisition of more draft picks and high-priced veteran talent. The Canucks appear likely to be sellers at the trade deadline, while still attempting to secure a playoff spot.
First, the onus will be on unloading veterans as playoff rentals in exchange for draft picks, because other teams are not likely to surrender significant talent unless they want to -- and know they can -- sign Vancouver's castoffs.
In the offseason, Benning's primary aim will be to sign high-priced free agents, namely a stud defenceman and offensively gifted forward. Given the ongoing youth movement at centre, that offensive player is likely to be a winger. If Benning feels like gambling, he might also want to unload Miller, who has become increasingly prone to injury, at the deadline and free up $6 million that he is due to receive next season. Other clubs could be willing to pay a decent price for Miller as they seek post-season goaltending insurance. Otherwise, Benning will likely think hard about dealing him in the summer.

4. Steven Stamkos will be traded by the deadline.

It's getting too late in the game for Stamkos, who is due to become an unrestricted free agent, and the Tampa Bay Lightning braintrust to resolve their apparent rift. Stamkos is not even offering any platitudes about a desire to stay in Tampa if contract terms can be sorted out, and Lightning GM Steve Yzerman can not afford to let him walk for nothing.
The Lighnting captain's availability will cause seismic activity throughout the league, because some teams will be willing to pay a high price even if they can only get him for a Stanley Cup run. The ideal scenario would be for the Lightning to give Stamkos and his agent the chance to pursue a sign-and-trade deal.
Either way, Stamkos will likely get moved, and the trade will impact the Lightning and other teams beyond this season.
More than one team could be involved in a trade for him, and other clubs will likely make moves in response as they chase the Stanley Cup. With some blue-chip prospects available in this year's draft, high-end picks could also come into play and add to the deal's future impact on a number of teams.

5. The Toronto Maple Leafs will make several trades by the deadline.

See above re: Stamkos. The Leafs, who are looking to unload veterans and their big contracts, will likely be among the finalists in the bidding for Stamkos either at the trade deadline or through free agency. The Toronto native is an obvious franchise player to build around as coach Mike Babcock continues to implement a culture of winning and Leafs management aims to develop a younger, more talented roster.
By acquiring Stamkos before he becomes a free agent, the Leafs would have an exclusive period in which only they could negotiate a long-term contract with him. Also, the departure of veterans could help ensure that the Leafs finish low in the standings and get an early draft pick. Such a scenario might result in highly touted American prospect Auston Matthews or another world junior star heading to Toronto.
Babcock would not let the Leafs tank, but he wouldn't complain about a lottery pick.

Sven Baertschi trade has plenty of upside for Canucks

The Vancouver Canucks did not do much at the NHL trade deadline Monday, but they still managed to gain attention.
Shortly after the deadline passed, it was announced that the Canucks had acquired 22-year-old Swiss forward Sven Baertschi from the Calgary Flames for a second-round draft choice. This deal was newsworthy just for the fact that the Canucks made a rare deal with a Pacific Division rival.
Such trades almost never happen, because of fears that they will be harmful to each team’s positions in the standings. Usually, GMs prefer to deal with counterparts in opposing conferences. Sometimes, three-way trades can result in a player going to a divisional or conference rival but, ironically, the Flames initially approached the Canucks.
Vancouver general manager Jim Benning paid a high price, but Baertschi, chosen 13th overall in 2011, is an exceptional talent with tremendous upside – if his junior career is any indication.
“I don’t like giving up draft picks, but I think that in this case, Sven Baertschi, we feel, is gonna be a top-six NHL player for our team some day,” said Benning. “So we weighed getting Sven with what we would get in the second round with our pick and we made a decision: Let’s go ahead and do this. He’s a guy that fits our profile. He’s fast, he’s skilled, and I don’t know what happened with his development in Calgary, but we’re very excited to have him, and he’s going to be a big part of our skill group going forward.”
Baertschi has struggled to gain permanent NHL employment, but his former junior bench boss, Mike Johnston, now coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins, told The Calgary Herald earlier this month that the light will soon go on for Baertschi.
“I just think it’s … such a tough league, the NHL,” said Johnston. “Hard for young guys. You can come in, lose your confidence and kind of lose your game. If you’re more of a grinder, a worker, a tough guy, it’s easier. But if you’re a skilled guy trying to figure out your game, it becomes more challenging.
“I’m hoping he can still do it. I believe he can.”
So does Benning. The same goes for Travis Green, coach of Vancouver’s AHL farm team in Utica, N.Y., who was an assistant with Portland during Baertschi’s junior days.
Baertschi had only four points in 15 games with the Flames this season and 25 points in 36 AHL contests with their Adirondack farm team. But in his last WHL season with Portland, he accumulated 33 goals and 61 assists 94 points, after producing 85 points in 66 games the year before.
To someone who saw him play during those two campaigns, it was obvious that Baertschi was well ahead of his peers and had the speed and skill necessary for the NHL. Whether he can handle the rough going remains to be seen.
Johnston was convinced that the Flames still believed in the youngster, but he was wrong. It’s also debatable whether the Flames developed him properly given some of the trials and tribulations that they were going through with coaching and management changes and on-ice struggles prior to this turn-around season in Calgary.
Now in his third season as a full-time pro, Baertschi has yet to play a full season in either the AHL or NHL, splitting time between both. That situation points to a lack of patience on the part of Calgary management – and the high expectations that they placed on Baertschi right from his rookie season. Remember, he’s only 22 – and has not yet played three full seasons.
But Johnston believes that Baertschi is on par skill-wise with former Portland players Nino Niederreiter and Ryan Johansen, who are both established NHLers.
“Baertschi came (to Portland) right after them, so I had pretty good comparables and Sven was equally as good as those guys as a junior, with his speed, his intelligence, his playmaking ability,” said Johnston. “It took Niederreiter a setback and now he’s got it … and I still think Sven will be fine.
“When you’re really, really young, coaches and organizations tend to overlook a couple (deficiencies), but when you come (into the NHL), you’ve got to lock those down. There’s no overlooking anymore — you either make it or don’t.”
If you’re given the proper chance.
The Canucks, under new GM Benning, coach Willie Johnston and president Trevor Linden, have demonstrated this season that they are willing to be patient with developing young players. Minor-league coach Green has also demonstrated that he is an astute coach and developer of talent. So Baertschi, who according to Been is extremely excited to play for the Canucks organization, will likely feel more comfortable than he ahs lately – and can gain accordingly.
“Travis (Green) is real excited to get him,” said Benning. “He’s going to Utica and play. And if he gets an opportunity, if we have an injury or something, then he’ll come up and he’ll play for us.”
If Baertschi were to have an extended stint in the minors, that would not be such a bad thing. He has never played more than 26 NHL games in a season, and he has not played more than 41 in an AHL campaign, either.
He has to be given a chance to stay somewhere so that he can work on the upgrades necessary to be a full-time NHL player.
Ultimately, this deal could benefit both teams, because the Flames could parlay the acquired second-round pick into an everyday NHLer in the future, and they, arguably, have less of a need for Baertschi now due to the success of rising young stars like Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. The Canucks have also enjoyed a renaissance under Desjardins following the disastrous season under former coach John Tortorella, when they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008. But the Canucks have an older core of veterans and Baertschi will add to a foundation of youth that the club is building through its prospects and future draft picks.
“We have now a group of good young fast, skilled players that are gonna be the foundation of our teams going forward,” said Benning. “What’s happened around here, they’ve had such good teams over the years, and they’ve been so close to winning the Stanley Cup, that sometimes you sacrifice draft picks to buy players at the deadline that you think can make a difference in winning the Cup and stuff. So we’ve had to regroup a little bit that way.”
If Baertschi can come anywhere near to generating the offence that he did in junior in the NHL, Canuck fans will soon forget the high price paid for him.

Desjardins enjoys chance to coach against Johnston

Saturday’s meeting between the Vancouver and Pittsburgh Penguins was more than just another game to Willie Desjardins.
The game offered Desjardins a chance to coach against his “real good friend” Mike Johnston after they both took several decades to become NHL head coaches. Desjardins and Johnston, both 57 and rookie NHL bench bosses, initially coached together in the mid-to-late 1980s at the University of Calgary under the guidance of George Kingston. From there, they wound their way to the NHL.
“He’s super-competitive and, for both of us, it was a long time to coach at this level,” said Desjardins. “So whenever we get a chance to coach at this level, I think it’s significant.”
Desjardins began his coaching career at the U of C while completing a master’s degree in social work. He then moved on to the Seibu Bears in Japan, briefly coached the Saskatoon Blades in the WHL as a mid-season replacement, and served as an assistant with the Canadian men’s national team under Johnston before moving to the Medicine Hat Tigers.
Serving as both general manager and coach over the years, Desjardins guided the Tigers to a pair of WHL titles as well as a Memorial Cup final berth before moving to the Dallas Stars organization, where he spent two seasons as an assistant with the NHL club and two more as head coach of their Texas farm club. After guiding Texas to the AHL championship last season, and earning coach of the year honours in the process, he took on his first NHL head coaching position with the Canucks.
Johnston, a Dartmouth, N.S., native, initially served as a head coach at the Augustana University College in Alberta and then worked with Desjardins as a U of C assistant while completing a master’s in coaching science. After leaving the U of C, Johnston took the helm at the University of New Brunswick, served as general manager and coach with the Canadian men’s national team, and then held assistant and associate positions with the Canucks and Los Angeles Kings before becoming GM and coach of the WHL’s Portland Winterhawks – a team he built into a powerhouse.
Along the way, both Desjardins and Johnston also coached Canadian squads in a number of junior and senior world championships. Ironically, Johnston received his first head coaching job last summer when Desjardins rejected an offer from the Penguins and joined the Canucks instead.
So did Desjardins put in a good word for Johnston with the Pens?
“No, he did everything on his own,” said Desjardins with a chuckle. “He’s good and he’s real capable.”

NHL clubs give unsung coaches their big breaks

A good week for unsung hockey coaches got better Wednesday.
Mike Johnston became the new head coach of the Pittsburgh Penguins after losing out to Willie Desjardins for the Vancouver Canucks coaching post. Both Johnston and Desjardins received NHL head coaching gigs for the the first time in their long and distinguished careers.
Ironically, Johnston, 57, got the Pittsburgh job because Desjardins, also 57, turned down the chance to tutor Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin et al.
More irony: Johnston and Desjardins are old friends. They worked together with the University of Calgary Dinos circa the the late 1980s while they were completing masters degrees in coaching science and social work, respectively, before going into coaching full-time.
Johnston, a Nova Scotia native, wound his way to Canadian college hockey, with the Camrose Kodiaks, and Canadian national team program, before moving on to assistant posts in the NHL with the Canucks and Los Angeles Kings. Seeking a head coaching job, he took over the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL, who were finalists in 2013-14 for the fourth consecutive season, and won the league title in 2012-13 while he was suspended because the league decided Portland had offered improper inducements to players and parents.
On Monday, after Desjardins' appointment was announced, Johnston and I spoke, and he talked as though he expected to return to Portland, because he preferred to be a head coach. But he obviously got the job he wanted.
Desjardins' first NHL job comes after his coaching journey began with waystops at the U of C, Japan, Canadian national team program and Medicine Hat of the WHL. In eight seasons, he guided the Tigers to a pair of WHL titles and a berth in the 2007 Memorial Cup final In the meantime, Desjardins served as an assistant and head coach with Canadian teams that won silver and gold in consecutive years at the world junior championships. Desjardins then spent two seasons as an assistant with the Dallas Stars before taking the helm of their Texas farm team because he preferred to be a head coach.
He led Texas to the AHL's Calder Cup title in the recently concluded season.
I've known Desjardins and Johnston for many years. Simply put, they are good people with outstanding hockey knowledge who have earned everything they have received the hard way. On first glance, they do not come across as typical coaches, because they appear friendlier than many peers who fit the bench boss stereotype better. However, they both know how to get players' respect and can lay down the law when necessary.
Desjardins is the opposite of former outspoken Vancouver coach John Tortorella, who was always good for a quote. But Desjardins, who admits that he doesn't like the spotlight, is still articulate, highly intelligent and willing to deal with media professionally.
The prediction here is that Desjardins will, ultimately, be a nice surprise for disgruntled Vancouver fans and prove his vow that the Canucks are "for real."
Johnston and Desjardins' hirings came in the same seven-day span that saw the Carolina Hurricanes give Bill Peters, 48, a former Detroit Red Wings assistant, his first head coaching gig after he spent more than two decades in lesser roles.
All in all, it's been a good week for unsung coaches as they finally get their big breaks in the NHL.